East Hampshire could switch from Conservative to Liberal Democrat if an election were held today, according to a new YouGov poll.
The survey also predicts that nine Hampshire constituencies would be won by Reform UK.
The second YouGov poll of 13,000 voters since the last general election projects a Reform UK government winning 311 seats, just 15 short of a majority.
The Local Democracy Reporting Service analysed what the poll suggests about how Hampshire residents might vote.
Reform UK would take nine constituencies if an election were called tomorrow — New Forest East, New Forest West, Fareham and Waterlooville, Basingstoke, Portsmouth North, Havant, Gosport, Isle of Wight West and Isle of Wight East.
Portsmouth North, Basingstoke and Isle of Wight West, which voted Labour in 2024, are predicted to switch, costing Labour three parliamentary seats.
New Forest East, New Forest West, Fareham and Waterlooville, Havant, Gosport and Isle of Wight East, all Conservative in 2024, are forecast to go to Reform UK, meaning six Conservative losses.
Hamble Valley, North West Hampshire, Romsey and Southampton are expected to remain Conservative, while Winchester, Eastleigh and North East Hampshire would stay Liberal Democrat.
The poll also predicts East Hampshire would move from Conservative to Liberal Democrat, and Portsmouth South would remain a Labour stronghold.
The poll comes as two Hampshire councillors defected to Reform UK this week.
New Forest District councillor for Lymington, Cllr Barry Dunning, became the first Hampshire County Councillor to join Reform UK. He said his views no longer aligned with the Conservatives, particularly over parking restrictions on Lymington High Street.
Cllr Dunning said that being “at the coal face” as a councillor meant making cuts to services, which was not why he entered politics.
Basingstoke and Deane Borough councillor Paul Miller also left the Conservatives and joined Reform UK this week.
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