Happy new year. Let us hope for good things for East Hampshire, for Britain and for the world.

There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic. Our local villages and towns, and our country, have a great deal going for them.

But we also face many challenges, some long-standing and others more recent. 2026 is likely to be the year when the now not-so-new government’s honeymoon comes to an end.

The term “honeymoon” may sound odd, given how low Sir Keir Starmer’s approval ratings already are, currently sitting at minus 54. Yet despite appearances, the Government has been operating within a comparatively blessed political window. However difficult things may feel for ministers now, the reality is that 2026 is likely to be far tougher.

A traditional honeymoon may last only a fortnight. Political leaders would also remind you that even one week can be a long time in our trade.

But there is a long-standing rule of thumb in politics: new governments enjoy a two-year grace period. During that time, they are largely permitted to blame problems on those who came before them — the awful inheritance, the sins of the parents, the errors of previous administrations. Sound familiar?

Sure enough, almost every government announcement still begins with some variation of “after 14 years of Tory rule”, or similar.

That framing has been applied even where outcomes are not merely taking time to change, but are demonstrably worse than before. Obvious examples include record levels of illegal immigration arrivals, rising welfare spending, a slowdown in house building and an increase in homelessness.

At the same time, little is said about the progress the new government inherited — unemployment almost halved between 2010 and 2024, inflation in 2024 broadly on track, significant improvements in school results and a fall in violent crime.

Nor is there much acknowledgement of the extraordinary circumstances faced by the previous government, from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the profound economic — and wider — shock of Covid.

This narrative will continue for a few months yet. But if the two-year rule still holds, as it generally has, by the middle of 2026 these explanations will no longer carry the same weight. Two years is widely considered sufficient time for any administration to get its act together, establish control and deliver. Beyond that point, failures are no longer “inherited”. They belong squarely to the government in office.

Of course, even into late summer and autumn this year, Labour will still seek to pin blame on its predecessors. But public patience has limits. By the second half of 2026, the Government will be judged primarily on its own record — and rightly so.

Even before then, the local and mayoral elections scheduled for May 2026 — despite the cancellation of several contests, including the Mayor of Hampshire — are widely seen by the media and Labour backbenchers as a crucial moment for Sir Keir’s leadership. They will offer an early indication of whether the Government’s explanations are still resonating with voters.

We shall see what happens.